U.S. imports for January increased fairly significantly from December by 6.9% and even had a slight rise from January of 2012 by 0.1%. Surprisingly, January imports have not been this high since 2007, which signals some steady rebounding growth for 2013.

The increase in imports mainly came from Asia, which rose in TEUs by 11.5%. Large export increases were seen more specifically from the countries of China and South Korea, which both rose almost 13%. You can read more about January's imports in our Press Release Here.

  Methodology:
Zepol’s data is derived from Bills of Lading entered into U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s Automated Commercial Environment (ACE). This information represents the number of House manifests entered by importers of waterborne vessel goods. This is the earliest indicator for trade data available for the previous month’s import activity. The data excludes shipments from empty containers, excludes shipments labeled as Freight Remaining on Board (FROB), and may contain other data anomalies.       

Rare earth metals aren’t so much rare as they are a nightmare to extract and in the past two years, EXPENSIVE. The problem with the useful little elements is the mining process, which is extremely damaging to the environment, making many countries less than keen on doing it themselves... the old N.I.M.B.Y. (Not In My BackYard) mentality.

China has been one of the few countries willing to take on the environmental risks of mining which has made it a major supplier of rare earth metals across the globe.

So what happens when China decides to cut back? Well, the price skyrockets and major consumers like the United States have to find alternative suppliers.

Zepol searched some rare earth metal HTS codes in its TradeView database (composed of U.S. Census imports and exports) and found some interesting stats:

• France has become a major supplier of rare earth metals to the United States in the past year. In 2011 the country supplied over $56 million worth and in 2012 (January-November) it exported over $105 million.
• The highest price increase for rare earth metals was HTS code 28.05.300000 (Scandium and Yttrium, whether or Not Intermixed Or Interalloyed). It went from $6.38/KG in 2008 to $172.12 in 2011.
• From 2007-2011, the United States has actually reduced the amount of rare earth metals it imports by 50%, although the total price for the goods has gone up 533%.

HTS Code	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	*2012
2805300000 - Rare Earth Metals, Scandium and Yttrium	$8.54	$6.38	$22.18	$29.11	$172.12	$109.97
2846908000 - Compounds, Inorganic/Organic Yttrium/Scandium	$4.99	$8.88	$8.91	$15.63	$78.32	$70.29
2846902010 - Rare Earth Oxides Except Cerium Oxide	$5.11	$9.53	$4.81	$6.67	$38.28	$27.93
2846100000 - Cerium Compounds	$3.44	$4.61	$3.31	$6.68	$24.58	$14.80
2846902050 - Mixtures of Rare Earth Chlorides	$3.10	$5.81	$5.05	$5.49	$54.64	$13.95
2846904000 - Contain Wt. Gt 19% But Lt 85% Yttrium Oxide	$19.47	$61.79	$25.89	$12.16	$32.94	$11.63
Average $/KG	$4.60	$7.79	$6.35	$10.01	$55.62	$35.73

*2012-Data represents January-November 

According to Zepol's online database of U.S. ocean imports, TradeIQ™, imports in November have reached the lowest levels the United States has seen since February. November TEUs (twenty-foot-containers) decreased 12.8% from October and 15.2% from November of last year. There was a significant slump in imports from Asian countries by 18% from November of 2011, but European countries had only a slight dip in imports by 6.5%.

It's unique to see U.S. imports so low in November, but then again, with Hurricane Sandy torturing the east coast and an eight-day labor strike at the Ports of L.A. and Long Beach, the last month and a half has seen some unexpected and disrupting events...So the real question is will December continue the downward slope we've seen since July, or rise above the mediocre November?

Methodology:
Zepol’s data is derived from Bills of Lading entered into U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s Automated Commercial Environment (ACE). This information represents the number of House manifests entered by importers of waterborne vessel goods. This is the earliest indicator for trade data available for the previous month’s import activity. The data excludes shipments from empty containers, excludes shipments labeled as Freight Remaining on Board (FROB), and may contain other data anomalies.       

Two critical events have recently filled up capacity on U.S. air imports, yet the demand is expected to rise even further. Cathy Roberson, Senior Analyst with Transport Intelligence, states that:

“The timing of the potential US East/Gulf coast ports strike and the launch of various high tech gadgets from Apple, Samsung, Amazon, Microsoft and others, make for interesting times for those shippers, forwarders and transportation providers operating in the US market. Capacity concerns are rising as rates are expected to increase.”

With the ILA port strikes on hold until December, pressure eases for retailers that were struggling to secure on-time arrivals of holiday shipments. Conversely, demand in the U.S. for the iPhone 5 has put pressure on the amount of air cargo space available.

Roberson also states that air cargo providers have reduced capacity; citing that UPS and FedEx have both decreased air networks. These two events combined will likely amount to an increase in the cost of air cargo by $5 per kilogram. As the cost of air cargo has already seen an increase of 7% this year compared with last year, how far are importers willing to go? Below is a graph of year-over-year changes for air imports and prices; prices have seen a steeper rise compared with overall imports.