Curious as usual, we here at Zepol wanted to learn how Egypt’s political revolution has affected trade relations with the United States in the past year. No doubt, Egypt’s changing political and economic environments have impacted world trade, for better or worse. Furthermore, the upcoming election is a pivotal point in determining where future trade relations are headed.

The top U.S. imports from Egypt include crude oil, apparel, and textile floor coverings. In 2011, U.S. imports of oil from Egypt took a drastic drop, as control of Egypt’s oil production was murky. With the country becoming more stable in 2012, imports of oil have gradually increased. Imports of apparel items from Egypt, on the other hand, showed an increase during the height of the revolution in the past year. Overall, imports from Egypt for the first quarter of 2012 are at a five-year record high.

On the export side, the U.S. drastically increased the amount of cereals, meats, and aircraft headed to Egypt last year, while products such as vehicles and machinery showed a dip. Starting in the first quarter of 2011, overall exports headed to Egypt slid for four straight quarters. The first quarter of 2012 showed a change of pace and posted an increase in exports destined for Egypt.

Below is a graph illustrating U.S. trade with Egypt. The most recent trend shows the trade balance narrowing as Egypt prepares for a momentous election.

 

Since the BP oil spill in 2010, we have seen a great change in the seafood trade industry in the Gulf Coast. Not only have the lives of fisherman changed dramatically, but it has also affected the overall importation of seafood for the entire United States. Fishermen are experiencing a loss of ocean life in the area surrounding the oil spill and thus, many are losing business, and many are even losing their jobs. This means that we have to import our seafood from other countries since we can no longer rely on the wealth of the seafood industry in the Gulf Coast. It is a tragedy that has reached many people. According to an article from BBC, one company tells the tale of losing their business after 90 years in the seafood industry. In the chart below we can see that total imports in February 2011 have increased 22% over last year.

In the past few months the value of imports has started to even off a little bit more. We saw the highest value of imports in December 2010 in the past year with an import value of $207,836,290, and now in February 2011 it is only $189,346,101. With the clean up in progress we will hopefully see a turnaround in the coming months.

The U.S. Census Bureau released its Merchandise Trade data numbers on February 11th for December 2010. The Merchandise Trade balance increased 6.4% over last December and fell 11.6% from the previous month. Imports dropped 1.5% from November and gained 14.3% over last year, while exports rose by 3.6% from the previous month and 17.9% over December 2009.

Below is an in-depth breakdown of the U.S. Census Merchandise Trade data. This month we have highlighted 5 interesting items that we found while looking at December's data; here are the highlights:

1. Trade protectionism will rise
2. The supply of containers could impact exports more than increased manufacturing
3. Concentration of imports shifting to ports East of the Panama Canal
4. Inflationary pressures on the dollar could tamp down both import and export growth
5. Housing could still be the anchor dragging the U.S. back to another recession
   

Click here for Zepol's U.S. Census Merchandise Trade Data Update for December 2010

On February 6th, we completed the data for January 2011 in our U.S. Customs trade data tool, TradeIQ. Total shipments in January rose by 7.69% from December, and grew 17.62% over the previous year. Imports from Asia rebounded to show strong year-over-year totals as importers prepared for the lunar New Year.

Below is a table showing port regions of the world where shipments originated:

As the New Year begins, there is a lot of hope in the container shipping industry that normalcy will return. However, the uncertainty in Egypt and industry shifts from the Great Recession will have an effect on the industry for years to come.

Over the next year, two issues will likely reign supreme:

1. Importers choosing NVOs over VOCCs to book and handle their cargo
2. The continued shift of Asian origin cargo to ports East of the Panama Canal

Below is the trend of the last thirteen months showing total TEU volume and shipments as seen in Zepol's monthly containerized import press releases:

Methodology:

Zepol's data is derived from Bills of Lading entered into the Automated Manifest System. This information represents the number of House manifests entered by importers of waterborne containerized goods. This is the earliest indicator for trade data available for the previous month’s import activity. The data excludes shipments from empty containers, excludes shipments labeled as freight remaining on board, and may contain other data anomalies.